![]() evaluated 27 CMIP6 GCMs and ensembles using the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) as observed data over Africa and found that the CMIP6 model ensemble reasonably replicated the historical precipitation, despite considerable regional differences across the continent. In the context of the African continent, previous studies have conducted sub-regional evaluations to judge the reliability of the CMIP6 in reproducing historical-precipitation simulations. The differences exhibited by the individual GCMs highlight the significance of each model’s unique dynamics and physics however, model selection should be considered for specific applications. Individual models from the same modeling centers showed spatial homogeneity in correlation values. The GPCP (CMIP6 MME) exhibited a heterogenous (homogeneous) spatial pattern, with higher correlation coefficients recorded in the CMIP6 MME than in the GPCP in all cases. The relationship between precipitation and sea-surface temperature (SST) exhibited a high spatial correlation (−0.80 and 0.80) with large variability across different regions and climate zones. The CMIP6 MME captures the spatial pattern of linear trends better than individual models across different climate zones and regions. ![]() In contrast, a strong drying trend in the CMIP6 MME and a weak wetting trend in the GPCP were shown in the Southern Hemisphere. The CMIP6 MME (GPCP) showed stronger wetting (drying) trends in the northern hemisphere. The annual and pre-monsoon seasons (i.e., DJFMA) were better replicated in the CMIP6 GCMs than in the monsoon-precipitation model (MJJASON). The CMIP6 MME and the majority of the individual models overestimate (underestimate) in humid (arid and semi-arid)-climate zones. The models from the same modeling centers replicated the precipitation levels across different seasons and regions. The humid region received >300 mm and the arid region received <50 mm across Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. The results showed that at annual and seasonal scales, the GPCP and CMIP6 MME reproduced a coherent spatial pattern in terms of the magnitude of precipitation. The spatial variation of the CMIP6 MME closely matched the observation. The CMIP6 MME outperformed the majority of the individual models. The CMIP6 multi-mean ensemble (MME) and the majority of the GCMs replicated the dominant features of the spatial and temporal variations reasonably well. Taylor’s diagram was used to quantify the strengths and weaknesses of the models in simulating precipitation. These are not “official” records, nor should they be used for legal or insurance purposes, but are provided for your information.This study evaluated the historical precipitation simulations of 49 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in reproducing annual and seasonal precipitation climatology, linear trends, and their spatial correlation with global SST across Africa and the Arabian Peninsula during the period of 1980–2014, using Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCP) data as a reference. All rain totals are measured in inches.Īll weather data collected at the Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center at Overton may not reflect temperatures or rainfall amounts for other areas of east Texas.
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